さきほど発表された第83回アカデミー賞に関する、Hollywood Stock Exchangeの予測市場の結果。日本時間2月28日(月)午前0現在の価格をメモ。結果としては、監督賞を除く7部門で的中。
この予測市場は、主要8部門について受賞作品を予測する。取引は2月27日16時(EST)（日本時間では2月28日午前6時）まで行われる。作品賞は 10銘柄がそれぞれ当初価格H$2.50、その他は5銘柄がそれぞれ当初価格H$5.00で売り出され、最終的に受賞作品の価格がH$25、そうでなければ0となる。
今回はずれた監督賞だけは「ソーシャルネットワーク」と「英国王のスピーチ」が接戦だったが、あとは総じて独走状態。まあ下馬評通りだったといえようか。
作品賞
Name Price Change Today
127 Hours - Best Picture H$0.35 H$0.04 (13%)
Black Swan - Best Picture H$0.78 H$0.01 (1%)
Inception - Best Picture H$0.27 -H$0.05 (-16%)
The Fighter - Best Picture H$0.20 H$0.02 (11%)
The Kids Are All Right - Best Picture H$0.33 -H$0.03 (-8%)
The King's Speech - Best Picture H$17.23 H$0.04 (0%)
The Social Network - Best Picture H$2.44 -H$0.01 (-0%)
監督賞
Name Price Change Today
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan H$0.70 H$0.11 (19%)
David Fincher - The Social Network H$13.13 H$0.16 (1%)
David O. Russell - The Fighter H$1.66 H$0.02 (1%)
Joel & Ethan Coen - True Grit H$1.89 H$0.03 (2%)
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech H$8.95 -H$0.17 (-2%)
主演男優賞
Name Price Change Today
Colin Firth - The King's Speech H$21.86 -H$0.21 (-1%)
James Franco - 127 Hours H$0.89 H$0.08 (10%)
Javier Bardem - Biutiful H$1.90 H$0.01 (1%)
Jeff Bridges - True Grit H$0.95 H$0.05 (6%)
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network H$0.93 H$0.03 (3%)
主演女優賞
Name Price Change Today
Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right H$2.73 H$0.04 (1%)
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone H$1.50 H$0.03 (2%)
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine H$1.63 H$0.03 (2%)
Natalie Portman - Black Swan H$19.98 H$0.11 (1%)
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole H$1.57 H$0.05 (3%)
助演男優賞
Name Price Change Today
Christian Bale - The Fighter H$18.79 -H$0.14 (-1%)
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech H$3.31 H$0.02 (1%)
Jeremy Renner - The Town H$1.76 H$0.06 (4%)
John Hawkes - Winter's Bone H$1.63 H$0.06 (4%)
Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right H$1.57 H$0.04 (3%)
助演女優賞
Name Price Change Today
Amy Adams - The Fighter H$0.79 H$0.11 (16%)
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit H$4.98 H$0.08 (2%)
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech H$2.75 H$0.08 (3%)
Jackie Weaver - Animal Kingdom H$1.69 H$0.09 (6%)
Melissa Leo - The Fighter H$14.50 -H$0.09 (-1%)
脚色賞
Name Price Change Today
127 Hours - Adapted Screenplay H$2.39 H$0.00 (0%)
The Social Network - Adapted Screenplay H$17.70 -H$0.15 (-1%)
Toy Story 3 - Adapted Screenplay H$1.79 H$0.02 (1%)
True Grit - Adapted Screenplay H$0.77 H$0.05 (7%)
Winter's Bone - Adapted Screenplay H$2.18 H$0.09 (4%)
脚本賞
Name Price Change Today
Another Year - Original Screenplay H$1.86 H$0.04 (2%)
Inception - Original Screenplay H$3.02 -H$0.02 (-1%)
The Fighter - Original Screenplay H$1.20 H$0.01 (1%)
The Kids Are All Right - Original Screenplay H$2.24 H$0.01 (0%)
The King's Speech - Original Screenplay H$17.23 -H$0.16 (-1%)
この予測市場は、主要8部門について受賞作品を予測する。取引は2月27日16時(EST)（日本時間では2月28日午前6時）まで行われる。作品賞は 10銘柄がそれぞれ当初価格H$2.50、その他は5銘柄がそれぞれ当初価格H$5.00で売り出され、最終的に受賞作品の価格がH$25、そうでなければ0となる。
今回はずれた監督賞だけは「ソーシャルネットワーク」と「英国王のスピーチ」が接戦だったが、あとは総じて独走状態。まあ下馬評通りだったといえようか。
作品賞
Name Price Change Today
127 Hours - Best Picture H$0.35 H$0.04 (13%)
Black Swan - Best Picture H$0.78 H$0.01 (1%)
Inception - Best Picture H$0.27 -H$0.05 (-16%)
The Fighter - Best Picture H$0.20 H$0.02 (11%)
The Kids Are All Right - Best Picture H$0.33 -H$0.03 (-8%)
The King's Speech - Best Picture H$17.23 H$0.04 (0%)
The Social Network - Best Picture H$2.44 -H$0.01 (-0%)
監督賞
Name Price Change Today
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan H$0.70 H$0.11 (19%)
David Fincher - The Social Network H$13.13 H$0.16 (1%)
David O. Russell - The Fighter H$1.66 H$0.02 (1%)
Joel & Ethan Coen - True Grit H$1.89 H$0.03 (2%)
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech H$8.95 -H$0.17 (-2%)
主演男優賞
Name Price Change Today
Colin Firth - The King's Speech H$21.86 -H$0.21 (-1%)
James Franco - 127 Hours H$0.89 H$0.08 (10%)
Javier Bardem - Biutiful H$1.90 H$0.01 (1%)
Jeff Bridges - True Grit H$0.95 H$0.05 (6%)
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network H$0.93 H$0.03 (3%)
主演女優賞
Name Price Change Today
Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right H$2.73 H$0.04 (1%)
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone H$1.50 H$0.03 (2%)
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine H$1.63 H$0.03 (2%)
Natalie Portman - Black Swan H$19.98 H$0.11 (1%)
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole H$1.57 H$0.05 (3%)
助演男優賞
Name Price Change Today
Christian Bale - The Fighter H$18.79 -H$0.14 (-1%)
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech H$3.31 H$0.02 (1%)
Jeremy Renner - The Town H$1.76 H$0.06 (4%)
John Hawkes - Winter's Bone H$1.63 H$0.06 (4%)
Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right H$1.57 H$0.04 (3%)
助演女優賞
Name Price Change Today
Amy Adams - The Fighter H$0.79 H$0.11 (16%)
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit H$4.98 H$0.08 (2%)
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech H$2.75 H$0.08 (3%)
Jackie Weaver - Animal Kingdom H$1.69 H$0.09 (6%)
Melissa Leo - The Fighter H$14.50 -H$0.09 (-1%)
脚色賞
Name Price Change Today
127 Hours - Adapted Screenplay H$2.39 H$0.00 (0%)
The Social Network - Adapted Screenplay H$17.70 -H$0.15 (-1%)
Toy Story 3 - Adapted Screenplay H$1.79 H$0.02 (1%)
True Grit - Adapted Screenplay H$0.77 H$0.05 (7%)
Winter's Bone - Adapted Screenplay H$2.18 H$0.09 (4%)
脚本賞
Name Price Change Today
Another Year - Original Screenplay H$1.86 H$0.04 (2%)
Inception - Original Screenplay H$3.02 -H$0.02 (-1%)
The Fighter - Original Screenplay H$1.20 H$0.01 (1%)
The Kids Are All Right - Original Screenplay H$2.24 H$0.01 (0%)
The King's Speech - Original Screenplay H$17.23 -H$0.16 (-1%)
