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FOMC statement, December 14, 2016

2016年11月2日以来,約42日ぶりのリリースでした。今回は市場の予想通りに政策金利は0.50%[0.75%まで幅がある]に利上げされました。文言は利上げ以外の部分はあまり変わらずに単純に市場が織り込んだ通りのFOMC声明文でした。
  • 経済活動は緩やかな「上昇」が「拡大」になったので多少はニュアンスとして上方修正された感じ
  • 労働市場については失業率が「少し変化した」ことについての文言は,「低下している」に上方修正された
  • 家計消費については先月の「緩やかな上昇」という表現のまま変わっていない
  • 設備投資についても先月の「ソフトのまま」という表現のまま変わっていない
  • インフレについては「年初からは増加した」との表現は変わっていない
  • 市場ベースのインフレ予測については「上がりつつある」から「かなり上がりつつある」に上方修正された
  • 第二パラグラフは変更なし
  • 第三パラグラフは政策金利は(0.50%)[0.75%まで幅はある]に利上げされた
  • 政策金利の引き上げを正当化する継続的証拠について表現は必要なくなり,労働市場についても「より改善」から「より強い」状況が期待されることとなった
  • 第四パラグラフは変更なし
  • 第五パラグラフは変更なし
  • 今回は利上げだったので前回反対したジョージ総裁(カンザスシティ連銀)に加えてメスター総裁(クリーブランド連銀)の2人も賛成に回り全会一致のFOMCの文言になった

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in SeptNovember indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth ofthat economic activity has picked up from thebeen expanding at a modestrate pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been soliince mid-year. Job gains have been solid in recent months and the unemployment rate has declined. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased somewhat since earlier this year but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remainconsiderably but still are low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but decided, for the time being, to wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectivesIn view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further improvementstrengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were: Esther L. George and; Loretta J. Mester, each of whom preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.

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