• 祇園


4月5日にFedは3月15日のFOMC議事録を公開した。以下は参加者の経済見通し(Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook)以降の抄訳及びポイントである(全文はFedサイト "Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee"参照)。

In discussing intermeeting developments and their implications for the economic outlook, participants agreed that the information received since their previous meeting was broadly consistent with their expectations and suggested that the economic recovery was on a firmer footing. Looking through weather-related distortions in various indicators, measures of consumer spending, business investment, and employment showed continued expansion. Housing, however, remained depressed. Meeting participants took note of the significant decline in the unemployment rate over the past few months but observed that other indicators pointed to a more gradual improvement in overall labor market conditions. They continued to expect that economic growth would strengthen over coming quarters while remaining moderate. Participants noted that recent increases in the prices of oil and other commodities were putting upward pressure on headline inflation, but that measures of underlying inflation remained subdued. They anticipated that the effects on inflation of the recent run-up in commodity prices would prove transitory, in part because they saw longer-term inflation expectations remaining stable. Moreover, a number of participants expected that slack in resource utilization would continue to restrain increases in labor costs and prices. Nonetheless, participants observed that rapidly rising commodity prices posed upside risks to the stability of longer-term inflation expectations, and thus to the outlook for inflation, even as they posed downside risks to the outlook for growth in consumer spending and business investment. In addition, participants noted that unfolding events in the Middle East and North Africa, along with the recent earthquake, tsunami, and subsequent developments in Japan, had further increased uncertainty about the economic outlook.


Participants' judgment that the recovery was gaining traction reflected both the incoming economic indicators and information received from business contacts. Spending by households, which had picked up noticeably in the fourth quarter, rose further during the early part of 2011, with auto sales showing particular strength. Although some participants noted that growth in consumer spending so far this year had not been as vigorous as they had anticipated, they attributed the shortfall in part to unusually bad weather. While participants expected that household spending would continue to expand, the pace of expansion was uncertain. On the one hand, labor market conditions were improving, though gradually, and the temporary cut in payroll taxes was contributing to rising after-tax incomes. Some easing of credit conditions for households, particularly for auto loans, also appeared to be supporting growth in consumer spending. On the other hand, declining house prices remained a drag on household wealth and thus on consumer spending. In addition, sizable recent increases in oil and gasoline prices had reduced real incomes and weighed on consumer confidence. Business contacts in a variety of industries had expressed concern that consumers might pull back if gasoline prices rose significantly further and persisted at those elevated levels.





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    よしのり氏 なぜ休日増やすのか


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    噂の人物 正体は米軍最強シェフ

    BLOGOS しらべる部

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    香港デモ 怒り背景に中国不信も


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    朝日の信頼度 今年も全国紙最低


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    携帯違約金1000円に メリットは?


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    大阪拳銃強奪 品川区の男を逮捕





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